[WONKY POLITICS]: Commonwealth Club and Two Economists

"Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo" (rustyvandura) 02/11/2019 at 11:51 • Filed to: None

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This is a !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! , though not moderated well. Two very smart guys with two very different perspectives. The Trump guy makes good points and large concessions, but the “moderator” lets the liberal Berkeley guy dominate the discussion and step on the Trump guy. Still, well worth the listen. ( And in the end, the Trump guy praises the moderator, which throws his perspective into question for me...)

gettingoldercarguy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/11/2019 at 12:53

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Out of curiosity, why do you continually bring up political discussions?

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/11/2019 at 13:35

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I don’t have an hour. Did the He ritage/Reaganonomics guy concede that trickle down has been a con and doesn’t work? Hard to look at someone with his CV in a non-jaded manner.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gettingoldercarguy 02/11/2019 at 13:38

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I post because I am extremely concerned about what is going on in our country right now and because there are people here who are interested in having constructive dialogue about these topics. I also post about the important things like what I am eating for dinner and my wife’s dogs, and cars I see on the streets and the occasional firearms-related item of my interest. And airplanes. But you know that. Some oppos are sick of my posts, I think, and stay away. So it is for me with some of the SJWs who lurk here, but they leave me alone any more. A couple of them have left the building, as far as I can tell...

I’ve made some very good friends in this space. There’s always a warning and always a buffer picture, so it’s easy for folks to scroll right on past.

Y ou’re an O ppo whose replies I always read, FWIW...

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 02/11/2019 at 13:52

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Listen to it in the car sometime and get back to me. You’d find it interesting, I suspect, though the Berkeley guy is allowed to trample all over Mr. Heritage.

The Dummy Gummy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/11/2019 at 14:46

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I’ll listen to this later, but I will be honest - I take anyone associated with the H eritage Foundation views/words with a huge grain of salt. T heir words are usually paid bullshit to shove down the masses throats.

Especially , when he opens with “this tax bill worked out better than we thought”. He said the main goal was to make us more competitive when originally the wording was always ‘give back to Americans; these cuts will not be used for buybacks’. We all knew this was bullshit and it was proven almost immediately.

gettingoldercarguy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/11/2019 at 16:41

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The tax cuts have been good to me and my family. We, like everybody else who benefits from this throw the extra cash into more investments. Fuck the poor! Amirite?!?

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gettingoldercarguy 02/11/2019 at 17:03

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II don't I know enough to have an opinion. I just know that when I listen to those two economists, I am astounded how how differently they can see things. And neither of them are stupid.

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/11/2019 at 17:39

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I’ll see what I can do.  I’ll admit I am massively skeptical of the apparent views of Mr. Heritage, seeing what they’ve reaped for American socio-economics over the past 40 or so years.

Tristan > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/11/2019 at 17:41

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I really appreciate your political posts. They’re usually very centrist and you genuinely try to see things from both perspectives. Unfortunately, the general political discourse on Oppo has devolved to shrieking “ORANGE MAN BAD!!!” while sobbing on the floor, so I’ve just decided to stay out of it here for now.

The Dummy Gummy > fintail 02/11/2019 at 18:24

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I listened. I’m not going to lie the Heritage guy wasn’t terrible. He has obvious narrow scoped biases but the other guy was just insufferable to listen to while the heritage guy was diplomatic and all around not aggressive. I respect his talking points and civility while still think some of his points are dead wrong.

The Dummy Gummy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/11/2019 at 18:32

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I listened to the whole thing on the ride home. I, like you, honestly think the moderator did a terrible job. Brad DeLong got way off topic and ran tangents about his political views that lead the topic away from an economic view and straight political view. He left a really sour taste in my mouth even when I agreed with his points.

I completely disagree with Brad’s soft China sentiment and his support for the TransPacific Partnership.

Stephen Moore was wider away from the views I have and I think he gives way more credit to the tax changes contribution to the economy. While there has been 3% grown on a few occasions, it is marginally up overall. He claims it spurred all time lows in unemployment but the economy was already tracking that way. The tax cut fueled nothing other than huge share repurchases. Brad had a good point, that this was a botched once in a life time tax revision that could have done better with partisan support and no expiry. Brad got it wrong on expiry, the tax change expires on individual’s while lasting until the end of time for corporations.

Overall, I have a lot of respect for how Stephen handled the entire ordeal while completely disagree with his economic ideologies .

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > The Dummy Gummy 02/11/2019 at 19:14

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I don’t know enough about any of this to offer anything like the analysis you have offered. Brad DeLong ran totally amok, in my opinion, and Stephen Moore was simply too gracious to push back very hard. What I know from my pedestrian’s view is that there are two predominant views of what the Republicans have done with their tax thing and when people say that the Republicans “controlled” everything, well, they really didn’t because one or two members of their conference could derail the entire process. When you tell me that you agree that a once-in-a-generation opportunity has been squandered, I am inclined to accept that view.

Brad got it wrong on expiry, the tax change expires on individual’s while lasting until the end of time for corporations.

This is a fact? If so, I can’t say it surprises me.

I know what affects me, which is the $15,000 per year I pay for health insurance that still has a massive deductible and nobody is willing to have a substantive discussion about that.

But what I found most compelling about the so-called discussion was the talk of immigration, the other meaningful discussion that nobody seems willing to have.

There’s an Oppo who runs more conservative who has claimed that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has benefited his family, but I haven’t had the chance yet to go back and ask him how.

Certain Oppos ask me why I “continually” post about politics, and the answer is, that this is the only place I’ve found where I can have a substantive conversation with informed people on matters of politics and society. (Note: fewer than 25% of my posts are political or social. Maybe even closer to 10%.)

But I digress.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Tristan 02/11/2019 at 19:17

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Thanks. What political and social discussion I can troll up around here is the best quality that I enjoy anywhere. There are a few regulars, nice guys, who just pretty much pass me up, which is a cost of doing business, I suppose. Thanks for the support. I’m in this to try and figure out what the heck is going on and there are some knowledgeable people here.

The Dummy Gummy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/11/2019 at 19:32

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Here’s a little background on the tax cut, the individual tax cut:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tax-plan-consequences/
“By 2026, changes to individual tax rules expire, while corporate changes are permanent”

The tax cut will have a marginal benefit for everyone, but as Brad said those marginal impacts will be outweigh by what Corporations and wealthy are getting; as if this tax cut didn’t happen at all. The President and republicans artificially overheated the economy for no reason at all. This was the opportunity to reduce the deficit (in line with their fiscal conservative ideals), but instead ramped up huge debt. They always point to President Obama’s huge deficit run up but never talk about the fact he was dealing with the Great Recession and most those dollars were spent in the first few years. This is not to say I agree with all his policies he had over the years.

My family would vehemently disagree with me now because I’m not 100% Pro Trump, but I’m more conservative leaning.

You don’t have to worry about your political posts with me. The only ones that ‘bother’ me are the hard bias ones that aren’t grounded o n facts. I like to view myself as pretty partisan if anything bipartisan.  

gettingoldercarguy > Tristan 02/11/2019 at 19:37

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After your moderate AOC comment?  Pot???

fintail > The Dummy Gummy 02/11/2019 at 22:01

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Interesting , usually the supposed left is the one trying to be “civil” and priding themselves on it.  Heritage guy must be an old timer before being deplorable became fashionable.

Tristan > gettingoldercarguy 02/11/2019 at 22:06

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You caught me. A moderate would never criticize the face of  far-left extremism!

gettingoldercarguy > Tristan 02/11/2019 at 22:12

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Unfortunately, the general political discourse on Oppo has devolved to shrieking “ Democratic socialist!” while sobbing on the floor.

Sorry man, I don’t see you as a centrist or a moderate. Torque dork? Yes. Y ou? N o .

It’s not just your criticism, it’s the manner in which you do it. Not very moderate, more extreme.

The Dummy Gummy > fintail 02/11/2019 at 22:22

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I think both sides used to be civil, but at  some point shit hit the fan and there are now a ton of assholes out there that want no compromise.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > The Dummy Gummy 02/11/2019 at 22:52

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...artificially overheated economy...

This is what I am suspecting, given the commentary that I have heard.

I don’t post [POLITICAL] to fight or win or lose an argument, only to explore and learn. I look for things that are ironical or where there’s a large overlap. I’d really like to hear a well moderated interview with that Stephen Moore guy. I’ll Google him a bit.

I’m about ready to send my taxes to my tax guy. Mine aren’t very complicated, but I am curious to see where we wind up this year.

fintail > The Dummy Gummy 02/11/2019 at 22:54

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Yeah, I think things started going off the rails by the late 90s or so.  Now look what we’ve got.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gettingoldercarguy 02/11/2019 at 23:09

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Wait: are you being sarcastic here?

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > The Dummy Gummy 02/11/2019 at 23:15

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The Atlantic says Newt Gingrich is responsible for that.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 02/11/2019 at 23:16

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I thought of you when I read that Elizabeth Warren said that Donald Trump might not even be a free man come 2020.

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/11/2019 at 23:22

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I saw that, and had to laugh.  Unfortunately, I lack such faith in the legal/criminal justice system (and would just as much like to see some of his family also raked over the coals).

gettingoldercarguy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/11/2019 at 23:26

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On the fuck the poor thing I am. Our tax exposure is better, so on that I’m serious.  D epending on how you earn your income you're either better or worse off.  Guess which group got fucked?

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gettingoldercarguy 02/12/2019 at 07:42

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Not the billionaires, I'm supposing.

The Dummy Gummy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/12/2019 at 08:05

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If you end up owing; remember you don’t have to mail that check until Monday, April 15th.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > The Dummy Gummy 02/12/2019 at 09:17

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Right.

gettingoldercarguy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/12/2019 at 11:15

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/teresaghilarducci/2018/09/28/who-benefits-from-the-tax-cut-10-months-later/#7d4ccc9726bb

Tristan > gettingoldercarguy 02/12/2019 at 13:33

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I’m not a moderate. Now that that’s cleared up, legitimately the ONLY thing the Dems have to do to beat Trump in 2020 is not be batshit insane. The fact that you can’t see AOC as a total wackjob that’s doing more to increase the political divide and push the DNC platform further to the extreme left for the sole reason that she’s anti-Trump and spews insipid fairytale nonsense 24/7   is how you’re going to hand Trump another term.

gettingoldercarguy > Tristan 02/12/2019 at 14:28

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Where’d you get my take on AOC? I will say this, y ou’re very dynamic on your positions and responses.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gettingoldercarguy 02/12/2019 at 14:34

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Now, what can we say about Forbes as a source? Do the Wall Streeters read Forbes? Is Forbes pilloried for being lefty? I don’t know the answer to this, but it’s important to me to know that before I read the piece.

gettingoldercarguy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/12/2019 at 14:47

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Sure, know the source , but also look at the information and fact check it . Otherwise you’re nothing more than a political  hack.

Tristan > gettingoldercarguy 02/12/2019 at 14:50

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Forgive me if I’ve overstepped and made assumptions about your stance on AOC , it just seemed like you were defending her by your previous comments. 

I’m not sure if being called dynamic is an insult or a compliment, but I’ll take it as a compliment. I like to put myself in different shoes to view an issue, and I love to play devil’s advocate. Too many people think that yelling their opinions loudly is an acceptable substitute for educating themselves and being objective. 99% of the vitriol spewed at Obama was unwarranted. 99% of the vitriol spewed at Trump is unwarranted. The hatred surrounding politics is ugly and way too over-the-top. It’s bad when I don’t feel comfortable admitting that I’m a l ibertarian c onservative because people on the left will assume I’m a racist bigot, and people on the right will assume I’m a cuck for not falling lock-step in line with Trump.

gettingoldercarguy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/12/2019 at 14:53

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Also, Forbes is known as a right leaning publication.

gettingoldercarguy > Tristan 02/12/2019 at 15:11

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Yes, you definitely have me wrong on AOC. She,  Bernie and that lot are the left equivalent of trump. And like you, I agree with some t hings that the outlandish person from a political party says.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gettingoldercarguy 02/12/2019 at 15:53

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I think the hack is worthwhile information, so long as you factor in the orientation of the hackery. There will be useful tidbits there.

gettingoldercarguy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/12/2019 at 16:49

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So, what did you learn?

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gettingoldercarguy 02/12/2019 at 17:37

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I haven’t been able to read it yet, but I definitely will and I will report back.

I am curious as to your line of work; do you mind sharing that with me?

Tristan > gettingoldercarguy 02/12/2019 at 18:47

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I enjoy finding common ground. :)

gettingoldercarguy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/13/2019 at 00:08

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I work in intellectual property.  That's about all I say.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gettingoldercarguy 02/13/2019 at 12:24

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Fair enough. Thank you for that.

gettingoldercarguy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/14/2019 at 20:19

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Have you had a chance to reply and I've missed it perhaps?

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gettingoldercarguy 02/14/2019 at 23:51

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Bear with me.

gettingoldercarguy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/14/2019 at 23:57

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I’ll beer with you.

gettingoldercarguy > Tristan 02/15/2019 at 00:00

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How’d you like AOC on the Amazon cancellation? SMH.

I’m a liberal capitalist btw.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gettingoldercarguy 02/15/2019 at 00:05

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I haven’t had a beer in 30 years.

I read the article and it was a little bit Greeky to me. I asked a friend of mine about Forbes Magazine, and he said it was right-leaning and appealing to him, and this is a right-leaning guy. This is a key piece of how I consume political news and information. In the most pedestrian terms, if Washington Post was in a dither about something Barack Obama did, then I’d be inclined to think that it might be worth noting. Likewise, if Fock Snooze was mad at Trump, I’d note that and see what Politico was saying for comparison. I try to do a rudimentary, good faith cross checking of things.

By that calculus, if Forbes is saying that the tax cuts aren’t working the way they were billed, I’d have to believe them. The bit that resonated with me from the article was that CEO pay is tied to stock activity of the company, rather than to the company actually doing a good job.

gettingoldercarguy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/15/2019 at 00:08

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If buybacks aren’t a sign we’re heading for a slowing of t he economy, I don’t know what is.  Get ready to invest!

gettingoldercarguy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/15/2019 at 00:09

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Oh, I largely quit beer this year.  Was getting too enthusiastic about it.  Now it's hopped kombucha.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gettingoldercarguy 02/15/2019 at 00:12

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Now, you have to go easy on me because you’re someone who seems to know a bit about some things that I know little about and if you say something, I’m likely to believe you. So have your way with me if you want, but know that I’m likely to take you literally, which again, I’m not certain whether or not I’m supposed to.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gettingoldercarguy 02/15/2019 at 00:12

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Hopped Kombucha? Is that an alcohol drink? I’d never heard of it.

gettingoldercarguy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/15/2019 at 00:20

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Non alcoholic, but really tasty.

gettingoldercarguy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/15/2019 at 00:22

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Buybacks are just a great way for short term price gain on prices that are already unsustainable.  They'll cash out (execs) before downturn, reinvest on depressed prices.  Profit!

Tristan > gettingoldercarguy 02/15/2019 at 02:53

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Utter train wreck. Celebrating  the loss of 25,000 Amazon jobs and an estimated 67,000 resultant residual jobs (Yahoo news)... I have no words. 

gettingoldercarguy > Tristan 02/15/2019 at 02:57

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Mind blown.  I feel like the people that champion that champion anti vaccinations

Tristan > gettingoldercarguy 02/15/2019 at 03:19

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Ha. I’m just hanging out here near ground zero of the measles outbreak with a 2 year old and a 2 month old semi worried about a disease that was previously eradicated (the vaccine is administered in two rounds: first at one year of age, then at 4). People are dumb, and their dumbness puts my kids at risk.

What’s the end game of fighting off jobs? I figure she just wants the government to control everything and for everyone to be supported by the government, so corporations=bad? Couldn't she implement her 70% tax on all these jobs making them great for her agenda?

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gettingoldercarguy 02/15/2019 at 07:24

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Interesting. And sugars?

gettingoldercarguy > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/15/2019 at 11:43

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Not really sweet, more of a light acetic taste.

gettingoldercarguy > Tristan 02/15/2019 at 12:22

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I don’t know if 70% on income over 10 million earned is the answer, but I think it’s in the right direction. Income inequality is out of control and doesn’t bode well for us as nation.

My wife and I have already agreed that if one of our children get sick from an anti vaxxer’s chi ld directly related to their choice of foregoing vaccinations, we’ll sue the parents in civil court. It’s your choice and I get that. I don’t agree with it and wish you were rejected from more of public services, but it’s currently their choice. It’s also somebody’s choice to leave a loaded handgun that can be accessed by children, not properly secured. Something bad happens and you’re exposed.

Tristan > gettingoldercarguy 02/15/2019 at 14:59

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Like most issues, income inequality is nuanced. A-dec’s founder, Ken Austin designed the suction device still in use in dentist offices today when he adapted the d esign of a service station air-powered vacuum which used a venturi to create suction. It was a very simple design and extremely cheap to produce, and it made the previous expensive, c omplex and bulky pumps obsolete. Mr. Austin cranked out thousands of these things and became a very wealthy man because of it, and created an income inequality between himself, his customers, his employers and the patients of the dentists he served. However, he created jobs (A-dec is still the largest employer in Newberg, OR), invested greatly in his community in the form of housing developments, educational grants and donations, infrastructure and the arts, and he improved the wealth of the dentists by alleviating the burden of the complex, expensive equipment from their lives, and possibly the patients by lowering the costs of services. He’s a very rich man living a comfortable retirement now. I don’t see this case of wealth inequality as a problem. Conversely, Mylan Pharmaceuticals acquired the rights to the Epipen. We’re all familiar with this story- the prices skyrocketed, Mylan got rich off of the suffering of others and made a lot of people less-well-off. In the case of Mr. Austin, he worked hard, came from nothing and made a fortune while making the world better. Mylan showed immense greed and made life worse. Mr. Austin doesn’t deserve to have his money confiscated by the government, and he’s done a better job of reinvesting his money in his community than the bureaucrats would. Mylan deserved the $465M litigation it received and remains unrepentant and for their actions, still charging inflated prices for Epipens. They deserve to have their money confiscated.

But where do you draw the lines between a good wealthy person and a bad wealthy person? How do you pick and choose where to apply redistributionism? The dental industry as a whole, Newberg and Orego State University would be worse off if we had taken a massive chunk of Mr. Austin’s money, so is a blanket redistribution the best policy? How do you apply these variables to policy?

I also tend to believe in the perhaps overly- simplistic idea that there’s money to go around if you go out and find a way to make it and use what you make wisely. Five years ago my wife and I married with $60,000 in collective student loan debt, now we’re debt-free aside from the mortgage we have on the third house we’ve bought, which is a half million dollar house we only owe a little over $300k on. I make $50k a year as an aircraft mechanic, she makes a little more than that as a textbook sales rep. We’ve got a big fat buffer in savings and a cushy retirement account. It’s not about how much you make, it’s about how you use it, and if you have $200 and I only have $2, it’s not because you’re a bad person who has wronged me. I will admit there’s a lot of luck involved in our financial state because the real estate market has treated us well.

I hope you don’t have to sue anyone... It’s a scary thing. I believe in accountability and responsibility- My kids get their vaccines, and the first thing I bought as a new parent was a gun safe that stays locked behind a locked closet door. You can’t be too responsible.

gettingoldercarguy > Tristan 02/15/2019 at 15:41

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By all accounts, he would still be a wealthy person with a higher tax rate, because this only applies to income AFTER ten million per year. That is personal income, not income you can bounce around inside the handball court of company accountants.

I had somebody once told me employees get paid what they’re worth, which is an outright lie. People make what they negotiate. Most employers would be fine with paying minimum wage, less than that if possible. See the construction industry in Texas and agriculture overall.

My wife and I are quite comfortable, we invest about 85% of our income. We live far far below our means. But, that doesn’t mean we haven’t seen good, hard working people knocked down with charitable people nowhere to be found in the numbers required to render government help redundant. It sounds like you’ve managed your situation well and that’s great. I hope you never encounter the situation where despite your hard work, your best intentions, you encounter a situation that will allow somebody else to lord over you. Cancer is a helluva disease, so are strokes. A heavy burden comes with debilitating accidents , as well as special needs children.

For every good employer, take Costco, I can show you over a dozen Disneys.

A healthy middle class is the best thing for our country and our economy. Velocity of money increases massively when this exists and all but disappears with centralized wealth. A large hospital in Texas increased the base employee pay, they balanced this by reducing the bonuses paid to managing physicians. It’s not that I don’t want wealthy people, I want wealthy people without sacrificing the middle class.

Tristan > gettingoldercarguy 02/16/2019 at 13:58

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I know the history of the income tax is a graduated structure that was vastly altered by Reagan, and I know that $10 million and up is certainly a large sum of money, but taking something from someone else just doesn’t sit well with the libertarian side of me. In a perfect world the government could be scaled back to live within its means and would be funded entirely by a VAT system and the role of government would be infrastructure and national security while we foster a society that cares for one another on a personal level rather than just passing off our responsibility for charity to the government. But, unlike AOC I’m willing to admit my utopia is impractical and impossible.

Employers are in it for the money, naturally, so they are only going to pay an employee what the labor market commands. It’s not necessarily what the employee is worth. I wish there was more transparency in pay. I work for the gubmint so if I told you I’m a title 32 technician paid at wage grade 10 step 2 you could find out exactly what I make and I know what all my coworkers make. Perhaps corporations should adopt a similar system. Preferably voluntarily. Construction and agriculture are businesses that annoy me. I have roots in both and I hate what they’ve become. I grew up farming, worked as a farm hand for a small family owned dairy farm for a few years, and worked small construction jobs here and there. These were once fields for people passionate about their work. Now, it’s disgusting corporate farms that exploit illegal immigrant workers and smarmy slimy home builders that slap together ugly shitty houses with the aforementioned labor practices. There’s no place for the family farm or the skilled carpenter because they can’t make a living any more. The last year I worked for the dairy farm I made a whopping $13,000 at $6.25/hr... The boss made $11,000 that year.